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Quick update with many new polls today (Ipsos and the usual from the daily trackers). One clear trend is that the Liberals are dropping in Quebec. Slowly but surely they are moving away from 40+ seats and getting closer to their 2019 results. The Bloc is still down while the Tories are up. The first French debate tomorrow could be crucial.
Map
Detailed projections
Proj Canada 1 September 2021 by bryanbreguet on Scribd
We finally got multiple polls from firms with online samples (Angus-Reid, Léger, Abacus and Research Co.). While Léger was quite favourable to the Tories (lead by 4 nationwide, ahead in Ontario, Bloc strong in Quebec), Abacus, Ekos and Research Co all had good Ontario numbers for the Liberals.
The projections have shifted quite a lot but it's a little bit misleading. The Liberals are projected at 155 seats, yet only 14.5% of a majority. That seems weird but it's because they are currently ahead in many close races. In Quebec only, the Liberals are projected to win 8 seats by less than 5%. If they drop a little bit (or if their vote isn't as crazy efficient as in 2019), those 8 seats could flip really quickly.
Maybe the best way to illustrate this is to see that while the Liberals are projected with 155 seats, the average of the simulations puts them at only 145. So the race hasn't shifted that much with the polls today. Something to keep in mind as there is still considerable uncertainty at this point. Maybe presenting the average of the simulations (like what 338Canada does) would make more sense than doing the polling average and looking at the outcome with those numbers specifically. Oh well.
Anyway, here are the projections:
Map
Detailed projections
Proj Canada 31 August 2021 by bryanbreguet on Scribd
If you are looking for the most recent projections, they are here.
Le Québec bouge souvent beaucoup lors des élections. Que ce soit la hausse de Stephen Harper en 2006 (lorsqu'il avait fait passé son parti d'essentiellement zéro à 25%), la vague orange en 2011, la vague Trudeau en 2015 ou la forte hausse du Bloc en 2019, il est assez évident que les Québécois ont l'habitude de changer leurs votes.
C'est pourquoi il est un peu bizarre de constater que le Québec est la seule province qui n'a à peu près pas bougé depuis le début de cette campagne. Alors que l'Ontario est passée d'une avance Libérale de 10 points à une égalité statistiques ou la CB qui a vu les Conservateurs prendre une avance importante après avoir été derrière tout l'été, le Québec est essentiellement constant.
Il faut dire que le Québec n'a pas tendance à bouger au tout début, ?a prend du temps. Il est ainsi raisonnable de penser que les Québécois commenceront à prêter attention à cette campagne cette semaine, surtout avec le débat à TVA ce jeudi, le fameux Face à face. Un format de débat qui a séduit par le passé et qui attire une grande audience.
Le but de ce billet est de démontrer que les Québécois sont assez "fluides" entre les principales options. Voyez par vous-mêmes les 2e choix en 2019 ci-dessous, estimés via l'étude Canadienne électorale.
Les électeurs Bloc en particulier semblent très partagés dans leur 2e choix. Si Erin O'Toole veut aller chercher des électeurs supplémentaires, il semble qu'il devrait regarder auprès du Bloc mais aussi chez les Libéraux.
Peut-être plus important pour les Conservateurs, voici les 2e choix mais hors des grandes villes et banlieues:
On voit que près d'un quart des électeurs Libéraux avaient le PCC comme 2e choix. Chez le Bloc, les Conservateurs sont maintenant le principal 2e choix (de peu, il est vrai).
Imaginons le scénario parfait pour O'Toole qui irait chercher ses électeurs. Son parti serait à 33% hors des centres urbains. Ce serait suffisant pour être en tête dans cette partie du Québec. ?a ne lui donnerait pas des sièges à Montréal mais il remporterait largement plus que 10 sièges au total.
Je ne dis pas ici que ce scénario est probable, il ne l'est pas. Mais les Québécois sont connus pour être volatiles et leurs 2e choix montrent (en partie) pourquoi. Une mini vague Conservatrice n'est de loin pas impossible au Québec. Il a positionné son parti beaucoup plus proche d'une CAQ fédérale.
De manière plus générale, le problème pour le Bloc est que ses électeurs peuvent s'en aller de tous les c?tés. Cela explique possiblement pourquoi ce parti est en baisse dans les sondages par rapport à 2019. Blanchet a positionné son parti plsu au centre que Duceppe et sa formation est ainsi une sorte de grande coalition avecd es électeurs de gauche et de droite. ?a lui donne un grand potentiel mais aussi un plancher assez bas si les choses vont mal.
Au final, je crois que le Québec va commencer à prêter attention à cette campagne cette semaine. Et je serais surpris si nous ne verrions pas du mouvement dans les deux prochaines semaines. La tendance hors Québec indiquerait qu'une montée PCC est probable mais le Québec aime bien faire les choses à part. Pourrions-nous voir une poussée NPD, à la Québec Solidaire en 2018? Ou alors les Québécois vont décider qu'ils aiment Trudeau et ils vont lui donner sa majorité? à suivre.
Reminder: you can use the model with your own number here. And follow me on Twitter if you want more regular updates.
Short post where I just want to provide the most up to date projections. It's almost a 50-50 race at this point. If we get a full polls next week (likely on Tuesday) from Léeger, Abacus or Ipsos also showing the Tories ahead (like it has been the case with Mainstreet, Ekos and Nanos), then I expect the projections to flip and have the Conservatives ahead.
Map
Remember that it's a live map, so it might not match the content of this blog if you read it after August 29th. Full version here.
Detailed projections
Proj Canada 29 August 2021 by bryanbreguet on Scribd
Here below are the most up to date projections based on the polls published last week. As you can see, the Liberals are holding up maybe better than what you could have thought after reading some stuff on Twitter. But it could all change pretty quickly if today's polls from Ekos and Mainstreet are right. Both are showing the Conservatives well ahead nationwide (by like 5-6 points) and, if they are right, the Tories could well win more seats (still short of a majority although that possibility is now a lot more real than previously).
Anyway, here are the projections. Below them, I provide a short analysis of how close the Liberals are to losing a lot more seats (hint: it involves the GTA and Quebec. Yes, shocking!).
The map:
Full page version here.
And the detailed projections with chances of winning.
Proj Canada 27 August 2021 by bryanbreguet on Scribd
If I only used today's polls (Ekos and Mainstreet as well as Nanos who is less bullish on the Tories than the other two), I would actually get 138 CPC, 147 Liberals, 29 NDP,1 Green and 20 Bloc. The chances of winning the most seats would be, essentially, 40% for the Tories and 60% for the Liberals. The Conservatives would even have a 9% chance of a majority! Yes, what was completely unthinkable 2 weeks ago is now at 1 in 10 chances. It's pretty crazy. I think we are one debate win away from genuinely discussing an O'Toole government.
Looking at the relationship between popular vote (Canada wide) and the number of seats, we see that Trudeau at least isn't close to a complete collapse. But we also see that the 170 magical number for a majority is quite elusive unless the Liberals can get to around 36%.
The one reason the Liberals are still holding up is mostly because they are still ahead in Quebec and Ontario. I'll leave the former aside as it's mostly against the Bloc and it isn't as crucial as the latter (it should be noted, however, that the Liberals are at risk of dropping by a good 10 seats if they were to drop a tiny bit in the popular vote there). The graph below shows how the Canada-wide number of seats is heavily a function of the popular vote in Ontario. The seat heavy GTA can obviously tilt the scale on its own and we are starting to see a lot of races and flips there. Earl Washburn from Ekos, who is usually very good at seat projections, have noticed this as well in their data.
Please note that the relationship here does also depend on the across provinces correlations. In other words, the model assumes that if the Liberals are doing worse in Ontario, they'll likely do worse in other provinces. I thought I'd mention it because no, a 20 points swing in Ontario alone (from +10 to -10) can't really cause the Liberals to drop by 70 seats. I should have kept the numbers in other provinces constant but that was extra work. The point was more to give a general rule of thumb of when Trudeau would be in real trouble than a true causal effect.
If the Liberals can't regain a commanding lead in Ontario (like the +10 they had 2 weeks ago), a majority is quite unrealistic. And, as you can see, should the Tories take the lead (so on the left-hand side of the vertical axis), then the Liberals would actually be in danger of not winning the most seats. A 'simple' 4 points lead for the Conservative in Ontario would basically put the two parties tie. The Trudeau would absolutely need the Bloc to remain in the 20s or he'd in serious risk of finishing second. And yes, I'm aware that O'Toole finishing first doesn't guarantee him power.
The next few days will be crucial. The Liberals need to stop the bleeding. And fast. They are actually fortunate Quebec doesn't seem to have been paying attention so far, I suspect things could get much worse once Quebec does.
A lot of polls today (Abacus, Léger and Ipsos on top of the usual 3 trackers from Mainstreet, Ekos and Nanos). The overall trend is very clear and favours the Conservatives of Erin O'Toole, in particular in Ontario and BC. The NDP doing quite well also, especially in the West where they are slowly replacing the Liberals as the main progressive alternative.
In Quebec, it's still mostly stable but I doubt it'll remain like this for the next two weeks (remember, the French 'debate' (called face to face) on TVA is on September 2nd and it attracts a huge audience, probably more than the official leaders' debate.
So let's take a look at the projections:
The map (note: it's interactive and up to date, so if you're reading this article days from now, the map won't match the rest of the projections)
Full page here. Hold 'Shift' and use the left-click to move around.
In Quebec, voting intentions haven't changed much. The Bloc is still down compared to 2019 and the Liberals are making a few gains. However, there are quite a lot of races the Liberals are currently winning by a margin of less than 5% (8 to be exact). Any drop in Quebec and/or increase of the Bloc would make those seats flip. And if it happens, Trudeau would have almost no way to a majority based on the current polling numbers. Please note that I am not saying Trudeau can't come back during the next four weeks.
Let's also remember the Liberals had an incredibly efficient vote in Quebec in 2019. So it's well possible that some of those close races have already flipped.
In Ontario, the Tories have been surging in the last few days. Not enough to be ahead in the polling average (although a few polls do have them ahead, including Ekos and Mainstreet). Compared to 2019 when the Liberals won the province 42% to 33%, the current situation (36% to 35%) is basically turning half of the GTA into a race.
If the Conservatives can indeed win Ontario, then we can start genuinely discussing the possibility of Erin O'Toole having the most seats at the House of Commons. Would that be enough to become Prime Minister? Maybe with the Bloc but it's too early to tell.
In the Prairies and Alberta, the only interesting ridings are the urban ones. With the Tories being down generally there (ironically it's making their vote more efficient as they waste less of it in the rural ridings in Alberta for instance), both the Liberals and NDP can expect to make a few gains. This is also a region where the PPC and Maverick could do well and I might have to adjust my projections because of that. More generally, if the PPC voters ultimately go back to the CPC, at least in urban ridings in the West, that could create an ideal situation for the CPC where it could still win almost every single seat (the vote splitting in rural ridings won't be an issue).
See Manitoba here
And Calgary and Edmonton here:
Yes Trudeau would win seats in Alberta again after being shut out of it in 2019.
Finally, BC has seen the biggest increase for the CPC. To be fair, it might be a regression to the mean after some weird polls in July placing the Tories as low as 20%. The Lower Mainland is full of 3-way races and the Liberals will either need o get back up or will require their incredible vote efficiency again.
Alright, so all in all, we now have a situation where the Conservatives winning the most seats is almost as likely as the Liberals winning a majority. This is a very different situation from just one week ago. We'll see if O'Toole can continue his good campaign and if Trudeau can wake up. As for Singh, the Angus-Reid poll clearly showed that people like him and liked his campaign. If he can establish himself as the progressive alternative in the West, that could be huge for his party.
Detailed projections:
Proj Canada 24 August 2021 by bryanbreguet on Scribd
